WSSIndicators
Wall Street
Sentiment
Institutional
Services
Indicator list and
explanation.
The
Wall Street
Sentiment Survey
Each week, we
conduct a survey of
a static list of
diverse traders.
This survey group
has seen only very
modest changes over
the past 15 years.
When a participant
leaves the survey
group, he or she is
replaced with a
trader/analyst with
a similar style and
approach. As a
result of these
constraints we are
able to gain much
more from the survey
results than one
might from a typical
poll. Extreme
readings often are
contrary indicators,
but because the
surveyees are more
expert, most
readings are not
contrary, especially
short-term.
Additionally, we've
found that even
splits are often
good early warning
signals for market
turns.
Smart Money
Survey
Each week, we
conduct a survey of
professional
analysts/investors
who have a proven
record of accuracy.
This is not a
contrary indicator.
This crew has proven
themselves to be
very well-versed
generally on the
right side of the
market.
Amateur
Survey
Each week, we
conduct a survey of
the least
sophisticated and
more emotional
amateur
traders/investors.
This is a contrary
indicator. The most
emotional traders
are most likely to
be wrong on the
direction of the
market. Excessive
readings are very
reliable.
Traders-Talk.com
Weekly message
board poll
This is a standard
weekly poll of
fairly sophisticated
trading message
board participants
for the week. This
is a contrary
indicator. If too
many are Bullish for
the week, we might
look for some
selling, and vice
versa.
Traders-Talk.com
Daily message
board poll
This is a standard
daily poll of fairly
sophisticated
trading message
board participants
for the following
trading day. This is
not a contrary
indicator unless at
extremes. If there
are 40% Bulls and
30% Bears, this
would imply a higher
bias, but if there
were 55% Bulls and
18% Bears, it would
imply lower prices.
Traders-Talk.com
Actual Position
Poll
A daily poll of
participants' actual
positions; Fully
Long, Partially
Long, Flat,
Partially Short, or
Fully short. This is
a contrary indicator
at extremes counter
to the prevailing
trend. That is to
say if there are
many fully short
traders in an
uptrend, that
up-trend is likely
to continue, near
term.
Fully
Long/Fully Short
Ratio
Derived from the
Traders-talk Actual
Position Poll, we
analyze poll results
for persistent
trends in excess
confidence (long or
short). When this
acts as a contrary
indicator, it has
proven to be
valuable for
identifying not only
intermediate-term
bottoms but also
market tops when
readings are below
60% or above 300%.
When this does not
act as a contrary
indicator, excessive
(500% or more)
readings, called
"Tipping Point" Buy
signals, have been
reliable 1 day
signals.
We have over a
decade of raw data
that we can provide
to you if you would
like to evaluate it.
The
following
public polls
and surveys
are all contrary indicators:
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The Thrift
Saving Plan weekly
poll is
a very reliable read
for amateur traders.
AAII's
weekly poll
is a classic poll
and widely followed.
This poll measures
longer-term investor
sentiment and often
gives an early read
on important tops
and bottoms.
The
Investors
Intelligence
weekly survey
is also widely
followed and gives a
read on the
sentiment of those
advising investors.
This sentiment
probably reflects
that of some hedge
funds. It is better
informed, and tends
to be quite early.
Persistent excessive
readings are more
valuable than one or
two excessive
readings and upon
occasion, excessive
readings can be
non-contrarian.
Stock
Newsletter
Sentiment Index is
another measure of
established
newsletter writer's
sentiment. More
specifically, this
measures the
aggregate level of
market exposure
(long or short)
recommended by
newsletter writers.
Unlike the II
survey, this index
measures aggregate
advisor confidence.
NAAIM
and NAAIM Delta
are measures of
advisor confidence,
based upon surveys
of actual advisor
exposure levels
among the National
Association of
Active Investment
Managers. NAAIM
Delta measures rapid
shifts in advisor
exposure levels
which may imply
excessive confidence
or worry, or may
otherwise identify
uneconomic trading
(and thus
exploitable
opportunities). We
can provide 8 years
of historic raw data
for your perusal.
Lazlo
Birinyi's Blogger
Poll is
a new measure of
market junky
sentiment. Excesses
seem to be indicate
the overconfidence
by somewhat more
sophisticated
speculators and can
be quite useful.
Citigroup
Panic/Euphoria
Model is a
proprietary
indicator which,
according to Citi,
tracks not just
investor attitudes
but also
incorporates market
reaction. Euphoria
readings imply an
80% theoretical
likelihood of a
correction within 12
months. Panic
readings imply a 96%
theoretical
likelihood of a
rally over the next
12 months.
The
following
Options
Sentiment
Indicators are contrarian:
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The Daily
CBOE P/C ratio
measures all options
speculation on the
Chicago Board
Options Exchange.
When enough
speculators are
buying calls or
puts, you can often
plan on a move that
makes them wrong, at
least near term.
The 10-day
CBOE P/C ratio smooths
out any possible
aberrations in the
daily data and gives
rather good
intermediate term
signals.
The Equity
P/C ratio
measures optimism
and pessimism among
small, aggressive
speculators. If
confirmed, this can
be very predictive.
The ISE
Sentiment Index
uses opening long
customer
transactions to
calculate a
sentiment index.
Opening long
transactions are
thought to best
represent market
sentiment because
investors often buy
call and put options
to express their
actual market view
of a particular
stock and this data
excludes most
programmer, market
maker, and similar
trades, which tend
to aberrate other
options sentiment
measures. High
readings are Bearish
and low readings are
Bullish. When used
in conjunction with
other sentiment
measures, the ISEE
is a good measure of
individual
speculator
sentiment.
The
Wall Street
Sentiment Options
Oscillator
measures excessive
shifts in options
buyers' sentiment to
generate Buy and
Sell signals. We
only look at opening
long options
transactions because
this will exclude
market maker and
firm trades and give
us a better idea of
actual investor
sentiment. Market
maker and firm
activities in the
market often create
"noise" in the data
which can mask how
traders and
investors are really
deploying money in
options. We also
look beyond
"excessive" put or
call buying and seek
out more dramatic
shifts in exposure,
as these will, in
our view, more
likely represent
uneconomic or
emotionally-driven
investment
decisions. We can
provide roughly 8
years of raw data
for you to
incorporate into
your analysis.
The
Relative VIX
is a measure of the
amount the CBOE
Volatility Index
(VIX) is deviating
from its 200-day
moving average. The
VIX measures the
implied volatility
priced into the SPX
index options. When
the Relative VIX is
high, it implies
that too much fear
has been priced into
the options, which
both indicates
excessive Bearish
sentiment and
creates a motivation
to rally the market
(and profit from
rapidly declining
volatility
premiums). This is
one of our better
bottom-spotters.
The
Daily VIX
measures both day to
day swings that may
imply excessive
optimism or
pessimism as well as
absolute levels of
excessively high or
low implied
volatility which may
represent
exploitable
opportunities for
larger investors.
The ProShares
Short S&P 500
ETF Asset Flow,
while not an options
measure, per se, is
a derivative and
behaves somewhat
similarly to P/C
ratios. Large
one-day shifts into
or out of this etf
are contrary
indicators and
sustained,
larger-scale asset
shifts can be
excellent markers
for tops and
bottoms. We can
provide eight years
of historical raw
data for your
analysis.
The
following
Options
Sentiment
Indicators are
NOT
contrarian:
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The OEX PC
ratio is
a measure of how the
more sophisticated
institutional
traders (who
dominate trading in
these options) are
positioning. They
tend to be right.
The OEX
10-day PC ratio
gives an
intermediate-term
read on how the
"usually-right" "big
money" is
positioning. Again,
those traders tend
to be right.
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