WSW Podcast - A Bottom? Let's Talk Sentiment

Click the link above to listen to the broadcast, refer to the charts and text below.

Message Board Sentiment

We track both message board opinion and market exposure every day, and market opinion on a weekly basis on The message board sentiment poll today (2/5/10) showed Bulls at 40% and Bears at 40%. This was Bearish since even splits usually presage short-term weakness. That was two in a row. The Actual Position Poll showed 17% fully long and 20% partially long. 7% are partially short and 30% are fully short. The latter was well above my 20% threshold, and that is Bullish. More importantly, we have a Borderline Buy from the FL/FS 1-day. Since there were a lot of partially long Bulls, we figured that they might need to whack them one more time before a rally. Yesterday's and Wednesday's 200% Sell signals worked out very well. The FL/FS 5-day Fully Long/Fully Short ratio is neutral.

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The National Association of Active Investment Managers (NAAIM) Sentiment Survey showed the median market exposure at 40.0% down from 70.0%. This is a short-term Buy. The IT Sell signal was a big winner and nailed the top within 10 points. For more on our analysis, see this brief study at

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