Wall Street Sentiment"The most profitable and useful sentiment on Wall Street for more
than a decade. Period."
Testimonials:
"Some of the most valuable information I get is from Mark Young's weekly [ISA]
sentiment polls. He not only provides the raw sentiment numbers, but he also performs a
remarkably insightful and accurate analysis of the poll results. I would hate to be
without it."
C. Swenlin
DecisionPoint.com
"The ISA is a very handy tool
to have in one's trader's toolbox. [Mark Young's]special take on sentiment can help keep
you on the right side of the indexes, even with the seemingly irrational moves we've had
since 2000."
Enzo V.
New York City, NY
"I have been trading the markets since the early 1970's and
have tried just about everthing out there..with very very modest success...that said..i
can tell you that I find your "sentacator".. the most accurate..and simple to
use technique for predicting the near term direction of the S & P index.....this is
stated with a deep sense of thanks to you for presenting this product... you have my
heartiest congratulations."
Mike C.
Harrisburg, PA
"Mark Young's ISA is an invaluable sentiment service. Using it with other indicators
can give the fine edge to making a successful trade, and passing on a bad one."
Karen H.
New York City, NY
"Mark, just wanted to send you a quick complimentary note on
the ISA. Most of my market analysis prior to Aug. 2003 has dealt with classic TA and price
action. I've thought about investor sentiment and crowd psychology over the years, but
never followed a quantifiable, "for pay" service until subscribing to your ISA
[Trade Navigator]. I like it. I feel that it helps give me a more complete
"feel" for the equity market. Please make sure that I'm rolled into the new
premium ISA and keep up the great work!"
Jim T.
Germantown, TN
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What's
Included in Your Subscription: |
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ISA Daily Trade Navigator subscribers
get a daily update of our proprietary surveys, all the major public sentiment polls and
surveys (including any newly developed public sentiment polls that catch our eye), Rydex
Sentiment, standard options Put/Call ratios, $-weighted Put/Call ratios, our Senticator
and trading models, our T-4 indicator, plus in-depth analysis of all sentiment measures.
No one else can provide the depth and breadth of our sentiment research. See below for
additional details on the indicators provided. |
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If you are less active and more interested
in major turns and their likelihood, we publish a weekly version of the ISA Daily Trade
Navigator letter, called the ISA Weekend Report including all of the
above, but only once per week on the weekend, without daily updates for $99/year. |
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If you are a very active trader and are
looking for day-trading and position-trading ideas, our Premium upgrade
will get you everything included in the ISA Daily Trade Navigator and the ISA Weekend
Report, as well as a morning update with our best trading bets (long or short) for the
Emini, and trade set ups, including potential entry and exit points, as we see them. In
addition, we'll provide specific day and position trades, real time, as time allows. |
The
following are the Sentiment Indicators included in the
ISA Weekly, Daily, and Premium Services: |
The Wall Street Sentiment Survey
Each week, we conduct a survey of a static list of diverse traders. This survey group has
seen only very modest changes over the past 15 years. When a participant leaves the survey
group, he or she is replaced with a trader/analyst with a similar style and approach. As a
result of these constraints we are able to gain much more from the survey results than one
might from a typical poll. Extreme readings often are contrary indicators, but because the
surveyees are more expert, most readings are not contrary, especially short-term.
Additionally, we've found that even splits are often good early warning signals for market
turns.
Smart Money Survey
Each week, we conduct a survey of professional analysts/investors who have a proven record
of accuracy. This is not a contrary indicator. This crew has proven themselves to be very
well-versed generally on the right side of the market.
Amateur Survey
Each week, we conduct a survey of the least sophisticated and more emotional amateur
traders/investors. This is a contrary indicator. The most emotional traders are most
likely to be wrong on the direction of the market. Excessive readings are very reliable.
Senticator
This is a proprietary indicator based upon a special survey that we conduct. It provides
specific Buy, Sell, or Neutral signals. The signals are not contrarian and are tradably
accurate for the following week. In some contexts, this indicator has had nearly 90%
accuracy.
T-4 Indicator
This is the Traders-Talk Timing Tool. This is a measure of activity on the Traders-talk
message board site. This correlates amazingly well with turning points. We (alone) review
this data daily, and we know that when we see readings north of 80 or so, we should look
for a change in trend.
Traders-Talk.com Weekly message board poll
This is a standard weekly poll of fairly sophisticated trading message board participants
for the week. This is a contrary indicator. If too many are Bullish for the week, we might
look for some selling, and vice versa.
Traders-Talk.com Daily message board poll
This is a standard daily poll of fairly sophisticated trading message board participants
for the following trading day. This is not a contrary indicator unless at extremes. If
there are 40% Bulls and 30% Bears, this would imply a higher bias, but if there were 55%
Bulls and 18% Bears, it would imply lower prices.
Traders-Talk.com Actual Position Poll
A daily poll of participants' actual positions; Fully Long, Partially Long, Flat,
Partially Short, or Fully short. This is a contrary indicator at extremes counter to the
prevailing trend. That is to say if there are many fully short traders in an uptrend, that
up-trend is likely to continue, near term.
Fully Long/Fully Short Ratio
Derived from the Traders-talk Actual Position Poll, we analyze poll results for persistent
trends in excess confidence (long or short). This is a contrary indicator, and has proved
to be valuable for identifying not only intermediate-term bottoms but also market tops
when readings are below 60% or above 300%.
The
following public polls and surveys are all contrary
indicators: |
TheStreet.com weekly poll is larger and gives a great read on amateur investors.
The Thrift Saving Plan weekly poll is a very reliable read for amateur
traders.
AAII's weekly poll is a classic poll and widely followed. This poll
measures longer-term investor sentiment and often gives an early read on important tops
and bottoms.
The Investors Intelligence weekly survey is also widely followed and
gives a read on the sentiment of those advising investors. This sentiment probably
reflects that of some hedge funds. It is better informed, and tends to be quite early.
Persistent excessive readings are more valuable than one or two excessive readings.
Mark Hulbert's Hulbert Stock Newsletter Sentiment Index is another
measure of established newsletter writer's sentiment. More specifically, this measures the
aggregate level of market exposure (long or short) recommended by Hulbert's newsletter
writers. Unlike the II survey, this index measures aggregate advisor confidence.
Lazlo Birinyi's Blogger Poll is a new measure of market junky sentiment.
Excesses seem to be indicate the overconfidence by somewhat more sophisticated speculators
and can be quite useful.
The LowRisk.com weekly poll is a measure of amateur speculator sentiment.
These readings tend to be predictive (contrarily) when above 60% (either Bullish or
Bearish).
Rydex Asset Flows are contrary indicators among the non-Dynamic funds and
non-contrary indicators when the shifts are large in the Dynamic funds. We've found that
non-Dynamic traders are the least sophisticated speculators (due to the trading
limitations and the higher costs). The larger Dynamic players, however, seem to have a
rather good track record over the short term and are probably more sophisticated.
The
following Options Sentiment Indicators are contrarian: |
The Daily CBOE P/C ratio measures all options speculation on the Chicago
Board Options Exchange. When enough speculators are buying calls or puts, you can often
plan on a move that makes them wrong, at least near term.
The 10-day CBOE P/C ratio smooths out any possible aberrations in the
daily data and gives rather good intermediate term signals.
The Equity P/C ratio measures optimism and pessimism among small,
aggressive speculators. If confirmed, this can be very predictive.
The OEX $-weighted* P/C ratio measures not only put and call buying, but
also how much is being paid for those puts and calls. Whenever excessive amounts of money
are being paid for options, it means that the buyers are buying for the wrong reasons and
can usually be faded. This is especially true when the nominal OEX P/C ratio is trending
in the opposite direction, implying that the smart money is fading those who are paying
too much for puts or calls.
The QQQQ $-weighted* P/C ratio also measures not only put and call
buying, but also how much is being paid for those puts and calls. Whenever excessive
amounts of money are being paid for options, it means that the buyers are buying for the
wrong reasons and can usually be faded. This is a great way of measuring sentiment among
those aggressively trading the the more volatile Nasdaq.
The ISE Sentiment Index uses opening long customer transactions to
calculate a sentiment index. Opening long transactions are thought to best represent
market sentiment because investors often buy call and put options to express their actual
market view of a particular stock and this data excludes most programmer, market maker,
and similar trades, which tend to aberrate other options sentiment measures. High readings
are Bearish and low readings are Bullish. When used in conjunction with other sentiment
measures, the ISEE is a good measure of individual speculator sentiment.
The Relative VIX is a measure of the
amount the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is deviating from its 200-day moving average. The
VIX measures the implied volatility priced into the SPX index options. When the Relative
VIX is high, it implies that too much fear has been priced into the options, which both
indicates excessive Bearish sentiment and creates a motivation to rally the market (and
profit from rapidly declining volatility premiums). This is one of our better
bottom-spotters.
The
following Options Sentiment Indicators are NOT contrarian: |
The OEX PC ratio is a measure of how the more sophisticated institutional
traders (who dominate trading in these options) are positioning. They tend to be right.
The OEX 10-day PC ratio gives an intermediate-term read on how the
"usually-right" "big money" is positioning. Again, those traders tend
to be right.
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